M\u1ed9t h\u1ecdc sinh trung h\u1ecdc h\u1ecfi t\u00f4i: \u201cC\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i nhanh ch\u00f3ng th\u1ebf n\u00e0o? T\u01b0\u01a1ng lai s\u1ebd gi\u1ed1ng c\u00e1i g\u00ec?\u201d<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u0110\u00e1p: C\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 thay \u0111\u1ed5i r\u1ea5t nhanh. C\u00f3 c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n v\u1ec1 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 thay \u0111\u1ed5i nhanh th\u1ebf n\u00e0o: B\u1ea1n mua m\u1ed9t m\u00e1y t\u00ednh m\u1edbi, \u0111em n\u00f3 v\u1ec1 nh\u00e0 v\u00e0 ngay khi b\u1ea1n kh\u1edfi \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u00e1y t\u00ednh c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t qu\u1ea3ng c\u00e1o t\u1edbi v\u1ec1 m\u1ed9t m\u00e1y t\u00ednh m\u1edbi h\u01a1n l\u00e0m cho “m\u00e1y t\u00ednh c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n” th\u00e0nh l\u1ed7i th\u1eddi. T\u1ea5t nhi\u00ean c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n n\u00e0y l\u00e0 ph\u00f3ng \u0111\u1ea1i nh\u01b0ng s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n l\u00e0 ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn c\u00e1c thi\u1ebft b\u1ecb \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eed thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u1ee9 hai n\u0103m m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n theo lu\u1eadt Moore. Lu\u1eadt n\u00e0y th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t quan s\u00e1t r\u1eb1ng s\u1ed1 c\u00e1c b\u00f3ng b\u00e1n d\u1eabn trong m\u1ed9t m\u1ea1ch t\u00edch h\u1ee3p s\u1ebd g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i l\u00ean c\u1ee9 sau hai n\u0103m. Lu\u1eadt n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ee9ng t\u1ecf l\u00e0 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c, v\u00ec n\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u00f9ng trong c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p b\u00e1n d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ec3 h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn vi\u1ec7c l\u1eadp k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1eb7t m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau ph\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ea5u cho m\u1ecdi ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u0169ng \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1edbi to\u00e0n th\u1ec3 ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eed v\u00e0 m\u1ecdi ph\u00e2n \u0111o\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi. Lu\u1eadt Moore c\u0169ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi nh\u01b0 nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n cho ph\u00e1t ki\u1ebfn c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 v\u00e0 l\u00e0 l\u1ef1c d\u1eabn l\u00e1i cho thay \u0111\u1ed5i x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i, thay \u0111\u1ed5i n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t, v\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf.<\/p>\n
N\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n nh\u00ecn l\u1ea1i m\u01b0\u1eddi n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc, kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 iPhone, iPads, Android hay m\u00e1y t\u00ednh b\u1ea3ng. iPod l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t thi\u1ebft b\u1ecb th\u01b0\u01a1ng hi\u1ec7u m\u1edbi m\u00e0 Steve Jobs m\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0a v\u00e0o cho th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi nh\u01b0ng ch\u01b0a c\u00f3 iTunes \u0111\u1ec3 mua nh\u1ea1c. T\u1ea5t nhi\u00ean, kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 Xbox, kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 PlayStation, kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 YouTube, kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 Flickr, v\u00e0 Google ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng ti nh\u1ecf chuy\u00ean trong \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u01a1 t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm. V\u00e0o th\u1eddi \u0111\u00f3, Gmail, Google Maps, Google Docs, v\u00e0 Skype, th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f2n kh\u00f4ng t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i. M\u01b0\u1eddi n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc, Mark Zuckerberg v\u1eabn c\u00f2n \u1edf tr\u01b0\u1eddng trung h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 Bill Gates m\u1edbi c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 r\u1eb1ng \u00f4ng \u1ea5y v\u1ec1 h\u01b0u \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1eadp trung n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng vi\u1ec7c t\u1eeb thi\u1ec7n.<\/p>\n
Kh\u00f4ng ai bi\u1ebft t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai s\u1ebd l\u00e0 g\u00ec nh\u01b0ng c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng ph\u1ecfng \u0111o\u00e1n r\u1eb1ng trong m\u01b0\u1eddi n\u0103m, m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e9p l\u00e1i xe v\u00ec m\u1ecdi xe \u0111\u1ec1u t\u1ef1 l\u00e1i v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t b\u1eb1ng h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng giao th\u00f4ng m\u00e1y t\u00ednh. \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n t\u1eafc ngh\u1ebdn giao th\u00f4ng v\u00ec h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng giao th\u00f4ng s\u1ebd qu\u1ea3n l\u00ed m\u1ecdi th\u1ee9 m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3. Ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn c\u00f4ng vi\u1ec7c c\u01a1 x\u01b0\u1edfng s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n b\u1edfi robots cho n\u00ean kh\u00f4ng nhi\u1ec1u c\u00f4ng vi\u1ec7c lao \u0111\u1ed9ng ch\u00e2n tay v\u00ec m\u1ecdi th\u1ee9 b\u1ea1n c\u1ea7n s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng ho\u00e1 ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n. M\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi s\u1ebd s\u1ed1ng trong “nh\u00e0 th\u00f4ng minh” v\u1edbi nhi\u1ec1u “thi\u1ebft b\u1ecb th\u00f4ng minh” \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng ho\u00e1 nhi\u1ec1u th\u1ee9 t\u1eeb n\u1ea5u \u0103n t\u1edbi gi\u1eb7t qu\u1ea7n \u00e1o v.v. C\u00f4ng vi\u1ec7c m\u00e0 ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u00e0m l\u00e0 ph\u00e1t ki\u1ebfn ra nh\u1eefng th\u1ee9 m\u1edbi \u0111\u1ec3 l\u00e0m m\u1ecdi th\u1ee9 t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n. \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 tr\u00ean 90% vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m s\u1ebd l\u00e0 trong c\u00e1c l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c khoa h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7. B\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ngh\u0129 \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 v\u1ebb nh\u01b0 khoa h\u1ecdc vi\u1ec5n t\u01b0\u1edfng nh\u01b0ng n\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n nh\u00ecn l\u1ea1i m\u01b0\u1eddi n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc, nhi\u1ec1u th\u1ee9 m\u00e0 ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 ng\u00e0y nay c\u0169ng c\u00f3 v\u1ebb nh\u01b0 khoa h\u1ecdc vi\u1ec5n t\u01b0\u1edfng v\u00e0o th\u1eddi \u0111\u00f3 \u2013 r\u1eb1ng m\u1ecdi th\u1ee9 thay \u0111\u1ed5i nhanh ch\u00f3ng l\u00e0m sao.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
—English version—<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
The past and the future<\/p>\n
A high school student asked me: \u201cHow fast can technology changes? What does the future look like?\u201d<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Answer: Technology changes very fast. There is a story about how fast technology changes: You buy a new computer, take it home and just as you start the computer there is an advertisement come for a newer computer that makes your \u201cnew computer\u201d obsolete. Of course the story is an exaggeration but the fact is most electronic devices change every two years due to Moore\u2019s law. This law is really an observation that the number of transistors in an integrated circuit will doubles every two years. This law has proven to be accurate, because it is used in the semiconductor industry to guide long-term planning and to set targets for all products development. This also influences the entire electronics industry and every segment of the world economy. Moore’s law is also considered as the cause for technology innovation and a driving force of social change, productivity change, and economic growth.<\/p>\n
If you just look back over ten years ago, there was no iPhone, iPads, Android or tablets. The iPod was brand new device that Steve Jobs just introduced to the world but there was no iTunes for buying music yet. Of course, there was no Xbox, no PlayStation, no YouTube, no Flickr, and Google was just a small company specialized in search engine. At that time, Gmail, Google Maps, Google Docs, and Skype, did not even exist. Ten years ago, Mark Zuckerberg was still in high school and Bill Gates just announced that he retired to focus his effort on charity works.<\/p>\n
Nobody know what the future would be but there are speculations that within ten years, people will not be allowed to drive cars because all cars will be self-driven and control by computer traffic systems. It means no more traffic jam since the traffic systems will manage everything efficiently. Most factory works will be done by robots so no more labor works as everything that you need will be fully automated. People will live in \u201csmart-house\u201d with many \u201csmart-devices\u201d to automate many things from cooking to washing their clothes etc. The work that most people do is to innovate new things to make everything better. That means over 90% of jobs will be in the science and technology fields. You may think this sound like science fiction but if you look back to the past ten years, many things that we have today also looked like science fiction at that time \u2013 that how fast thing changes.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
M\u1ed9t h\u1ecdc sinh trung h\u1ecdc h\u1ecfi t\u00f4i: \u201cC\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i nhanh ch\u00f3ng th\u1ebf n\u00e0o? T\u01b0\u01a1ng lai s\u1ebd gi\u1ed1ng c\u00e1i g\u00ec?\u201d \u0110\u00e1p: … <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[30],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4598","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-hoi-va-dap"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4598","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4598"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4598\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4599,"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4598\/revisions\/4599"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4598"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4598"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4598"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}