{"id":2229,"date":"2013-07-05T12:34:08","date_gmt":"2013-07-05T05:34:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/science-technology.vn\/?p=2229"},"modified":"2013-07-05T12:34:08","modified_gmt":"2013-07-05T05:34:08","slug":"cach-nhin-khac-ve-toan-cau-hoa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/?p=2229","title":{"rendered":"C\u00e1ch nh\u00ecn kh\u00e1c v\u1ec1 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u ho\u00e1"},"content":{"rendered":"

Theo nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, qu\u00e3ng m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi s\u1ed1ng \u1edf c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00f3 t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 sinh kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ee7 thay th\u1ebf cho d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 hi\u1ec7n th\u1eddi \u0111ang l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c. V\u1edbi \u00edt ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c, \u00edt ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u00f3ng thu\u1ebf, \u00edt ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u00f3ng g\u00f3p cho n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf, nh\u01b0ng nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi gi\u00e0 c\u1ea7n ch\u0103m s\u00f3c, s\u1ebd t\u1ea1o ra t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1edbn cho n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ng\u00e0y nay, ch\u00e2u \u00c2u, Nga v\u00e0 Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n c\u00f3 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t v\u00ec t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 sinh c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd \u0111\u00e3 s\u1ee5t xu\u1ed1ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 trong hai m\u01b0\u01a1i n\u0103m qua. M\u0129, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Hong Kong, \u0110\u00e0i Loan, v\u00e0 H\u00e0n Qu\u1ed1c c\u0169ng c\u00f3 t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 sinh th\u1ea5p nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng, Trung Qu\u1ed1c l\u00e0 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t n\u01a1i n\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 sinh \u0111\u1ec3 duy tr\u00ec s\u1ef1 v\u1eefng ch\u1eafc \u1edf m\u1ed9t t\u1ec9 nh\u01b0ng v\u1edbi 400 tri\u1ec7u c\u00f4ng d\u00e2n c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 s\u1ebd tr\u00ean 65 tu\u1ed5i \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2020, n\u00f3 s\u1ebd c\u00f3 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 l\u1edbn. \u0110\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng nhanh v\u00ec n\u00f3 s\u1ebd l\u00e0m m\u00f2n m\u1ecfi c\u00e1c t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean l\u1edbn t\u1eeb s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 cho v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 n\u1ed9i b\u1ed9 c\u1ee7a n\u00f3. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m t\u0103ng c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb v\u00e0 x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i.<\/p>\n

Di tr\u00fa l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u00fap gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 v\u1ec1 s\u00fat gi\u1ea3m l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng. \u0110\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t ch\u00e2u \u00c2u, Nga v\u00e0 Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n s\u1ebd c\u00f3 h\u01a1n 67% c\u00f4ng d\u00e2n c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd v\u1ec1 h\u01b0u tr\u01b0\u1edbc n\u0103m 2020. Tuy nhi\u00ean, do ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch di tr\u00fa c\u1ee9ng nh\u1eafc c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd, ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn d\u00e2n nh\u1eadp c\u01b0 trong c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i ph\u00e1p l\u00ed v\u00e0 h\u1ecd ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c cho nh\u1eefng vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m ph\u1ee5c d\u1ecbch m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng ai mu\u1ed1n l\u00e0m. B\u1edfi v\u00ec h\u1ecd kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi l\u00e0 h\u1ee3p ph\u00e1p, nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ed1i di\u1ec7n v\u1edbi th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c h\u1ed9i nh\u1eadp v\u00e0o trong x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i v\u00e0 tr\u1ea3i qua xung \u0111\u1ed9t v\u0103n ho\u00e1. Nhi\u1ec1u chuy\u00ean gia coi c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng nh\u00e2n nh\u1eadp c\u01b0 n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng kh\u00e1c v\u1edbi “n\u00f4 l\u1ec7” trong th\u1eddi thu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ecba. H\u1ecd b\u1ecb bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c v\u1edbi c\u00e1c vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ea5p kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai, kh\u00f4ng th\u0103ng ti\u1ebfn v\u00e0 th\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1ecb ng\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e3i b\u1edfi nh\u00e0 c\u1ea7m quy\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ecba ph\u01b0\u01a1ng.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc kh\u00e1c c\u00f3 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch nh\u1eadp c\u01b0 t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 di d\u00e2n “c\u00f3 ch\u1ecdn l\u1ef1a”. Ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n, M\u0129 v\u00e0 Canada \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn ch\u1ec9 c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng nh\u00e2n c\u00f3 gi\u00e1o d\u1ee5c v\u00e0 k\u0129 n\u0103ng cao di c\u01b0 v\u00e0o n\u01b0\u1edbc h\u1ecd. Ng\u00e0y nay 58% c\u00e1c b\u00e1c s\u0129 y t\u1ebf v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ti\u1ebfn s\u0129 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c sinh ra \u1edf ch\u00e2u Phi nay th\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u00fa \u1edf M\u0129 v\u00e0 36% c\u00e1c k\u0129 s\u01b0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c sinh ra \u1edf n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i \u0111ang l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c t\u1ea1i M\u0129 v\u00e0 Canada. V\u1edbi to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u ho\u00e1, con s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c mong \u0111\u1ee3i t\u0103ng l\u00ean khi nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi k\u0129 thu\u1eadt \u0111ang di c\u01b0 t\u1edbi ch\u1ed7 vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n, c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n v\u00e0 cu\u1ed9c s\u1ed1ng t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n. M\u1eb7c d\u1ea7u nhi\u1ec1u n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e0n n\u00e0n v\u1ec1 t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng “ch\u1ea3y n\u00e3o” n\u00e0y nh\u01b0ng ch\u1eebng n\u00e0o c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i c\u00f2n b\u1ecb gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n \u1edf n\u01b0\u1edbc s\u1edf t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c. Trong v\u00e0i n\u0103m t\u1edbi, \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u0103ng l\u00ean th\u00eam v\u1edbi thay \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c mong \u0111\u1ee3i trong ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch di d\u00e2n c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 n\u01b0\u1edbc ch\u00e2u \u00c2u. (Anh v\u00e0 c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc Scandinavi \u0111ang l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi di d\u00e2n c\u00f3 ch\u1ecdn l\u1ecdc).<\/p>\n

M\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ecfi: \u201cN\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0o s\u1ebd th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng trong m\u01b0\u1eddi n\u0103m t\u1edbi?” H\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf, ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1eb7t c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd v\u00e0o t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u1ec1u tin v\u00e0o \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c s\u1ebd l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi chi ph\u1ed1i to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u ti\u1ebfp. D\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u00e0 r\u1ea5t \u1ea5n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00ec c\u1ea3 hai \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng tr\u00ean 10% \u0111i\u1ec1u l\u00e0 “ph\u00e9p m\u00e0u” trong th\u1eddi h\u1eadu kh\u1ee7ng ho\u00e0ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh n\u00e0y. Ng\u00e0y nay, \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 \u0111ang \u1edf sau Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u1ec1 GDP t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3, v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i nh\u01b0ng \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua Trung Qu\u1ed1c l\u00e0 n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng nhanh nh\u1ea5t tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi b\u1edfi v\u00ec d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 \u0111ang \u0111\u1ed9 tu\u1ed5i lao \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng. B\u1edfi v\u00ec ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch m\u1ed9t con, d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ee7 c\u00f4ng nh\u00e2n \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 cho c\u00f4ng d\u00e2n kh\u1ed5ng l\u1ed3 c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 \u0111\u1ea1t t\u1edbi tu\u1ed5i v\u1ec1 h\u01b0u. T\u1ea5t nhi\u00ean, \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 c\u0169ng c\u00f3 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 n\u1eefa v\u00ec n\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed1i di\u1ec7n v\u1edbi g\u00e1nh n\u1eb7ng c\u00f3 t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 \u1edf t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng r\u1ea5t ngh\u00e8o. Tr\u00ean 65% c\u00f4ng d\u00e2n c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 s\u1ed1ng \u1edf khu nh\u00e0 \u1ed5 chu\u1ed9t v\u00e0 l\u00e0m ra \u00edt h\u01a1n m\u1ed9t \u0111\u00f4 la m\u1ed9t ng\u00e0y khi 12% s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 s\u1ed1ng trong xa hoa. Th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 trong khu v\u1ef1c CNTT \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ea1o ra l\u1ed7 h\u1ed5ng l\u1edbn gi\u1eefa “gi\u1ea7u” v\u00e0 “ngh\u00e8o” \u0111i\u1ec1u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng l\u00ean t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai. T\u00f4i tin c\u1ea3 Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 v\u1eabn c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 m\u00e0 t\u1eebng n\u01b0\u1edbc ph\u1ea3i v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua, k\u1ec3 c\u1ea3 d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 l\u1edbn kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u01b0\u1edfng \u00edch l\u1ee3i t\u1eeb t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf. S\u1ebd kh\u00f3 coi m\u1ed9t n\u01b0\u1edbc l\u00e0 c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c khi ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn c\u00f4ng d\u00e2n c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 s\u1ed1ng trong ngh\u00e8o n\u00e0n.<\/p>\n

Khu v\u1ef1c v\u1edbi t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 cao h\u01a1n v\u00e0 c\u00f3 l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng tr\u1ebb h\u01a1n l\u00e0 ch\u00e2u Phi v\u00e0 \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1. H\u1ecd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i ph\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c trong m\u01b0\u1eddi n\u0103m n\u1eefa. Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 v\u00e0 ch\u00e2u Phi s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfn b\u1ed9 theo c\u00e1c con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00e1c nhau. N\u1ebfu c\u1ea3i c\u00e1ch gi\u00e1o d\u1ee5c m\u00e0 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng, n\u1ebfu d\u00e2n c\u01b0 tr\u1ebb c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c bi\u1ebfn th\u00e0nh l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u00f3 k\u0129 n\u0103ng cao th\u00ec c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u1edf \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tr\u1edf n\u00ean gi\u1ea7u c\u00f3 h\u01a1n v\u00e0 m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n. Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u1edf ch\u00e2u Phi v\u1eabn c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 v\u1edbi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd v\u00e0 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb kh\u00f4ng \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh. Nhi\u1ec1u n\u01b0\u1edbc ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ed1i di\u1ec7n v\u1edbi chia r\u1ebd s\u1eafc t\u1ed9c v\u00e0 n\u1ed9i chi\u1ebfn. M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 n\u01b0\u1edbc th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh ngu\u1ed3n c\u1ee7a \u0111e do\u1ea1 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u1edbi kh\u1ee7ng b\u1ed1 v\u00e0 t\u1ed9i \u00e1c c\u00f3 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c.<\/p>\n

Nhi\u1ec1u chuy\u00ean gia \u0111\u1ed3ng \u00fd r\u1eb1ng nh\u00e2n t\u1ed1 nh\u00e2n kh\u1ea9u h\u1ecdc s\u1ebd l\u00e0 nh\u00e2n t\u1ed1 quan tr\u1ecdng trong vi\u1ec7c h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh n\u00ean c\u1ea3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n v\u00f9ng v\u00e0 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb. Trung Qu\u1ed1c, Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n v\u00e0 H\u00e0n Qu\u1ed1c, s\u1ebd kinh nghi\u1ec7m vi\u1ec7c ch\u1eadm d\u1ea7n c\u1ee7a t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 v\u1edbi s\u1ed1 l\u1edbn ng\u01b0\u1eddi v\u1ec1 h\u01b0u trong ch\u1ee5c n\u0103m t\u1edbi. V\u1edbi \u00edt ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c h\u01a1n v\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u1ea7n h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3, n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng v\u00e0 trong th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u c\u1ea1nh tranh, khi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf d\u1eebng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng, n\u00f3 s\u1ebd s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m. Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 nh\u01b0 Philippines, Vi\u1ec7t Nam, Malaysia, v\u00e0 Indonesia s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c c\u00f3 d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 t\u0103ng l\u00ean v\u00e0 s\u1ebd n\u1ed5i l\u00ean nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c v\u1edbi c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ph\u00eda b\u1eafc c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd. V\u1edbi nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi h\u01a1n \u0111ang l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng nhanh h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng nhu c\u1ea7u to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. C\u00e2u h\u1ecfi ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 li\u1ec7u h\u1ecd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u1ea3i ti\u1ebfn h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng gi\u00e1o d\u1ee5c c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u00f3 k\u0129 n\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh v\u00e0 t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng \u01b0u th\u1ebf c\u1ee7a t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u m\u00e0 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u ho\u00e1 \u0111ang t\u1ea1o ra kh\u00f4ng. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y v\u1eabn c\u00f2n l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng bi\u1ebft v\u00ec m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 chuy\u00ean gia tin r\u1eb1ng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00edch h\u1ee3p, kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 c\u1ea3i t\u1ed5 gi\u00e1o d\u1ee5c, kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 \u0111\u00e0o t\u1ea1o \u0111\u00fang \u0111\u1eafn, kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 k\u0129 n\u0103ng \u0111\u00fang \u0111\u1eafn, s\u1ee9c \u00e9p ngh\u00e8o n\u00e0n s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea9y vi\u1ec7c di c\u01b0 t\u1eeb v\u00f9ng \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 sang b\u1eafc v\u00e0 \u0111\u00f4ng b\u1eafc \u00c1 v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng vi\u1ec7c phi k\u0129 n\u0103ng. Trong tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p n\u00e0y, t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng s\u1ebd l\u00e0 x\u1ea5u nh\u1ea5t v\u00e0 n\u00f3 s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng kh\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi di c\u01b0 b\u1ea5t h\u1ee3p ph\u00e1p t\u1eeb ch\u00e2u Phi \u0111i t\u00ecm c\u00f4ng vi\u1ec7c ph\u1ee5c d\u1ecbch v\u00e0 b\u1ecb \u0111\u1ed1i x\u1eed t\u1ec7 \u1edf \u0111\u00f3.<\/p>\n

H\u01a1n bao gi\u1edd h\u1ebft, vai tr\u00f2 c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1o d\u1ee5c v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e0o t\u1ea1o k\u0129 n\u0103ng s\u1ebd x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh vi\u1ec7c v\u01b0\u01a1n l\u00ean c\u1ee7a \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 nh\u01b0 khu v\u1ef1c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1eeba nh\u1eadn ho\u1eb7c vi\u1ec7c m\u1ea5t \u0111i c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t khu v\u1ef1c ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng b\u1ecf l\u1ee1 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c ch\u00ednh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

—-English version—-<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Another view of globalization<\/p>\n

According to the Global Census Bureau study, about half of the world\u2019s population lives in countries whose birthrates are not sufficient to replace their current working populations. With less people to work, less people to pay taxes, less people to contribute to the economy, but more older people to care for, will create significant impact to the country economy.<\/p>\n

Today, Europe, Russia, and Japan have the most severe problem as their birthrates have dropped significant in the past twenty years. The U.S, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea also have a lower birthrates but not so severe. China is a special case where it can control the birthrate to stay steady at one billion but with 400 million of its citizens will be over 65 by 2020, it will have a major problem. Especially to a fast growing economy as it will drain significant resources from its growth to support its internal issue. This could have increasing political and social problems.<\/p>\n

Migration is one potential solution to help solve the problem of a declining work force. Especially Europe, Russia, and Japan will have more than 67% of their citizens retired by 2020. However, due to their rigid immigration policies, most of the migrants in these countries do not have legal status and they only work on menial jobs that nobody want. Because they are not considered legal, many are facing the challenge of integrating into the society and experience cultural conflict. Many experts considered these migrant workers are no different from \u201cslaves\u201d during the colonial time. They are forced to work on low paying jobs with no future, no advancement and often be mistreated by local authorities.<\/p>\n

Other countries have better immigration policies called \u201cselected\u201d immigration. For example, the U.S and Canada have accepted only highly educated and skilled workers to migrate into their countries. Today 58% of African-born medical doctors and PhDs reside in the U.S. and 36% of foreign born engineers are working in the U.S and Canada. With globalization, this number is expected to increase as more technical people are migrating to better jobs, better opportunities and better living. Although many developing countries have complained about this \u201cbrain drain\u201d situation but as long as there is limited opportunities in home countries, it will continue. In the next few years, it may increase more with the expected change in immigration policies of some European countries. (The U.K and Scandinavian countries are working on policies similar to a selected migration).<\/p>\n

People often asked: \u201cWhat countries will be successful in the next ten years? Most economists, who based their predictions on economic growth believe India and China will be the next global dominants. The data are very impressive as both have growth rate over 10% which is a \u201cMiracle\u201d in this post-financial crisis time. Today, India is behind China in overall GDP, and foreign investments but India could pass over China as the fastest growing economy in the world because its working-age population will continue to increase. Because the one-child policy, China\u2019s will not have enough workers to support their huge citizens reaching retirement age. Of course, India also has problem too as it faces the burden of having a very large proportion of its population in desperate poverty. Over 65% of its citizens live in slum and making less than a dollar a day when 12% of its people live in luxury. India\u2019s success in the IT sector has created a larger gap between the \u201cRich\u201d and the \u201cPoor\u201d which could have potential consequence in the future. I believe both China and India still have many problems that each must overcome, including the large populations who have not enjoyed the benefits from economic growth. It would be difficult to consider a country to be powerful when most of its citizens live in poverty.<\/p>\n

The areas with higher population growth and have younger workforce are Africa and South East Asia. They could change the balance equation of power over the next ten years. However, South East Asia and Africa will progress along different paths. If the education reform is successful, if the young population can be turned into highly skilled workforce then countries of South East Asia could become wealthier and more powerful. On the contrary, countries in Africa still has many problems with their economies and unstable political systems. Many are continue facing deep ethnic division and civil wars. Some may even become a source of global threats with terrorism and organized crime.<\/p>\n

Many experts agreed that demographic factors will be an important factor in shaping both regional developments and political systems. China, Japan, and Korea, will experience a slowing of population growth but larger number of retired peoples over the next ten years. With fewer people to work and more people to support, their economies cannot grow and in the competitive global market, when the economy stop growing, it will decline. On the contrary, Southeast Asia countries such as The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia will continue to have rising populations and will emerge as a challenge to their northern countries. With more people to work their economies can grow faster to meet global demands. The main question is whether they could improve their education systems to develop a stronger skilled workforce and take advantage of the global economic growth that globalization is creating. This is still unknown because some experts believe that without appropriate actions, without education reform, without proper trainings, without proper skills, poverty pressures will push for migration from South East Asia region to North and Northeast Asia for unskilled works. In this case, the situation will be worst and it is not different from what happened in Europe with illegal immigrants from Africa seeking menial works and be treated badly there.<\/p>\n

More than ever, the roles of education and skill trainings will determine the rising of South East Asia as the area to be recognized with or the demise of a potential area that miss an opportunities to be a global major powers.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Theo nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, qu\u00e3ng m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi s\u1ed1ng \u1edf c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00f3 t\u1ec9 l\u1ec7 sinh kh\u00f4ng … <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2229","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-xu-huong-toan-cau"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2229","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2229"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2229\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2230,"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2229\/revisions\/2230"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2229"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2229"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2229"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}