{"id":2102,"date":"2013-07-05T10:15:08","date_gmt":"2013-07-05T03:15:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/science-technology.vn\/?p=2102"},"modified":"2013-07-05T10:15:08","modified_gmt":"2013-07-05T03:15:08","slug":"thoi-gian-chuyen-tiep","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/?p=2102","title":{"rendered":"Th\u1eddi gian chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ng\u00e0y nay nhi\u1ec1u n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111ang kinh nghi\u1ec7m nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i kinh t\u1ebf l\u1edbn. Theo nhi\u1ec1u nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf, thay \u0111\u1ed5i hi\u1ec7n th\u1eddi th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf l\u00e0 chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp t\u1eeb ch\u1ed7 n\u00e0y sang ch\u1ed7 kh\u00e1c. V\u1edbi c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n, \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp t\u1eeb kinh t\u1ebf c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p sang tri th\u1ee9c. V\u1edbi c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n, \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp t\u1eeb kinh t\u1ebf n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p sang c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p. Tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 chuy\u1ec3n v\u00e0o th\u1eddi k\u00ec \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh, s\u1ebd c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u thay \u0111\u1ed5i, nhi\u1ec1u t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng kinh t\u1ebf, nhi\u1ec1u b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, nhi\u1ec1u th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p trong m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 khu v\u1ef1c, v\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n trong c\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c kh\u00e1c.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u1ebfu ch\u00fang ta nh\u00ecn l\u1ea1i l\u1ecbch s\u1eed n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u0129, cu\u1ed9c suy tho\u00e1i l\u1edbn n\u0103m 1929 \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 l\u00e0 chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp t\u1eeb n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p sang c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p. Trong th\u1eddi k\u00ec n\u00e0y, c\u00e1c n\u00f4ng tr\u1ea1i gia \u0111\u00ecnh nh\u1ecf \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thay \u0111\u1ed5i v\u00e0 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh c\u00e1c n\u00f4ng tr\u1ea1i c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p l\u1edbn. C\u00e1c n\u00f4ng tr\u1ea1i l\u1edbn h\u01a1n l\u00e0 t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng \u01b0u th\u1ebf c\u1ee7a trang thi\u1ebft b\u1ecb m\u00e1y m\u00f3c h\u01a1n l\u00e0 lao \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ee7 c\u00f4ng. D\u1ecbch chuy\u1ec3n trong b\u1ea3n ch\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m n\u00f4ng tr\u1ea1i l\u00e0m n\u1ea3y sinh trong cung c\u1ea5p th\u1ee9c \u0103n r\u1ebb h\u01a1n, tin c\u1eady h\u01a1n, l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn cao h\u01a1n cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u1ee7 n\u00f4ng tr\u1ea1i nh\u01b0ng n\u00f3 c\u0169ng c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 \u00edt vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m h\u01a1n trong n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p. Trong khi \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n, c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p ch\u1ebf t\u1ea1o t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi nhi\u1ec1u lao \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u01a1n. Nhi\u1ec1u n\u00f4ng d\u00e2n b\u1ecf c\u00f4ng vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ed3ng \u00e1ng, chuy\u1ec3n l\u00ean th\u00e0nh ph\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ec3 l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c trong x\u01b0\u1edfng m\u00e1y. Trong vi\u1ec7c chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp t\u1eeb n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p sang c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p n\u00e0y, c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 ch\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u00ec m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi mu\u1ed1n \u1edf l\u1ea1i trong c\u00f4ng vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ed3ng \u00e1ng v\u00e0 t\u1eeb ch\u1ed1i thay \u0111\u1ed5i. Suy tho\u00e1i nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a n\u0103m 1929 l\u00e0m ph\u01a1i ra t\u00ednh mong manh c\u1ee7a n\u00f4ng tr\u1ea1i gia \u0111\u00ecnh nh\u1ecf b\u1edfi v\u00ec h\u1ecd kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 c\u1ea1nh tranh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1edbi c\u00e1c n\u00f4ng tr\u1ea1i c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 h\u01a1n. Ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn c\u00e1c n\u00f4ng tr\u1ea1i nh\u1ecf b\u1ecb ph\u00e1 s\u1ea3n v\u00e0 h\u00e0ng tri\u1ec7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi m\u1ea5t vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m trong nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 1930 v\u00e0 M\u0129 kinh qua cu\u1ed9c suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf ph\u00e1 hu\u1ef7 nh\u1ea5t trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed. Khi nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ea5t v\u00e0 n\u00f4ng d\u00e2n m\u1ea5t vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m, nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi chuy\u1ec3n sang vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n, m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 l\u00e0m t\u1ed1t nh\u01b0 Carnegie (tri\u1ec7u ph\u00fa th\u00e9p), Rockefeller (tri\u1ec7u ph\u00fa d\u1ea7u ho\u1ea3), Morgan (tri\u1ec7u ph\u00fa ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng) v.v.<\/p>\n

M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf tin t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng kinh t\u1ebf hi\u1ec7n th\u1eddi l\u00e0 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 v\u1edbi \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra n\u0103m 1929. \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m ch\u1ebf t\u1ea1o \u0111ang tr\u1edf n\u00ean kh\u00f3 ki\u1ebfm v\u00ec ch\u00fang b\u1ecb kho\u00e1n ngo\u00e0i cho c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc chi ph\u00ed th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n. Tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng \u00edt vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m h\u01a1n l\u00e0m cho nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi ho\u1ea3ng s\u1ee3. Ch\u1ebf t\u1ea1o l\u00e0 x\u01b0\u01a1ng s\u1ed1ng c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n v\u00ec n\u00f3 cung c\u1ea5p vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tr\u1ea3 l\u01b0\u01a1ng h\u1eadu v\u00e0 gi\u1eef cho c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a M\u0129, Anh, Ph\u00e1p, \u0110\u1ee9c, Italy, Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n v\u00e0 H\u00e0n Qu\u1ed1c v.v. n\u1edf hoa. M\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u00e3 h\u1ecfi: \u201cNg\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p tri th\u1ee9c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 cung c\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ee7 vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m \u0111\u1ec3 thay th\u1ebf cho vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m ch\u1ebf t\u1ea1o kh\u00f4ng?\u201d \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 ch\u1ed7 c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh kh\u00e1ch b\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng \u01b0u th\u1ebf c\u1ee7a lo \u00e2u n\u00e0y v\u00e0 tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 r\u1eb1ng thi\u1ebfu ch\u1ebf t\u1ea1o s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0a c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n th\u00e0nh mong manh v\u00e0 y\u1ebfu \u0111u\u1ed1i. Nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u1ee7 tr\u01b0\u01a1ng r\u1eb1ng n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7, y t\u1ebf v\u00e0 d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u01b0 h\u1ee9a h\u1eb9n b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ebf t\u1ea1o. Tuy nhi\u00ean, n\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n nh\u00ecn l\u1ea1i trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, c\u00f9ng \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 c\u0169ng \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra trong nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 1930 n\u01a1i c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh kh\u00e1ch b\u1ea3o m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi r\u1eb1ng v\u1edbi s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng bao la \u0111\u1ea5t \u0111ai n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p, m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m trong ngh\u1ec1 n\u00f4ng nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 \u00edt vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m h\u01a1n trong ch\u1ebf t\u1ea1o. S\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi tin v\u00e0o \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3, v\u1eabn \u1edf l\u1ea1i trong n\u00f4ng tr\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd th\u00ec m\u1ea5t vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m. C\u00f9ng \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 \u0111ang x\u1ea3y ra ng\u00e0y nay v\u00ec c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi tin r\u1eb1ng khi kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n, s\u1ebd c\u00f3 vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m ch\u1ebf t\u1ea1o s\u1eb5n c\u00f3 cho n\u00ean h\u1ecd ch\u1edd \u0111\u1ee3i. \u00cdt ng\u01b0\u1eddi nh\u00ecn v\u00e0o s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n l\u00e0 ng\u00e0y nay c\u00f3 thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t c\u00f4ng nh\u00e2n c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 tr\u00ean kh\u1eafp th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi. Khi c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p ch\u1ebf t\u1ea1o s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m, c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p tri th\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng. Ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n, c\u00f4ng ti c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t nh\u01b0 General Motor m\u1ea5t h\u00e0ng t\u1ec9 \u0111\u00f4 la m\u1ed7i n\u0103m v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi h\u00e3ng m\u00e1y t\u00ednh Apple l\u00e0m ra h\u00e0ng t\u1ec9 \u0111\u00f4 la m\u1ed7i qu\u00ed v\u00e0 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng ti c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t tr\u00ean tr\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea5t. Khi nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u00e0m c\u00f4ng vi\u1ec7c trong x\u01b0\u1edfng m\u00e1y m\u1ea5t vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m, nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c trong c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 l\u1ea1i l\u00e0m t\u1ed1t. M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng c\u1ef1c k\u00ec t\u1ed1t nh\u01b0 Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, Marc Zuckerberg, Sergey Brin, v\u00e0 Larry Page v.v. (T\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 h\u1ecd \u0111\u1ec1u trong c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 th\u00f4ng tin.)<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 nh\u1eadn di\u1ec7n v\u00e0i ki\u1ec3u ng\u01b0\u1eddi trong vi\u1ec7c chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp n\u00e0y. Nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi ph\u00e1t ki\u1ebfn l\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f3 vi\u1ec5n ki\u1ebfn, h\u1ecd \u0111\u1eb7t ra chi\u1ec1u h\u01b0\u1edbng va \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ee3i nhi\u1ec1u nh\u1ea5t. Sau khi chi\u1ec1u h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1eb7t ra, c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u1eadp t\u1ee9c theo n\u00f3, h\u1ecd l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn s\u1edbm, nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u0169ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ee3i t\u1eeb vi\u1ec7c chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp v\u00ec cung \u00edt h\u01a1n c\u1ea7u nhi\u1ec1u. Cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng, khi chi\u1ec1u h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec3u r\u00f5 v\u00e0 kinh doanh c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp v\u1eefng ch\u1eafc, m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 l\u1edbn ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u1ed1 \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng nhu c\u1ea7u, h\u1ecd l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn mu\u1ed9n hay ng\u01b0\u1eddi theo sau. T\u1ea5t nhi\u00ean, khi m\u00e0 c\u1ea7u v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 cung, vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m s\u1ebd c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u cho t\u1edbi khi n\u00f3 \u0111\u1ea1t t\u1edbi c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng. Tuy nhi\u00ean, c\u00f3 nh\u00f3m nh\u1ecf nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn thay \u0111\u1ed5i, nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ed1i hay ch\u1ea7n ch\u1eeb. H\u1ecd l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi s\u1ebd ch\u1ecbu thi\u1ec7t th\u00f2i nh\u1ea5t v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng s\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u00fat n\u00e0o. Khi vi\u1ec7c chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp x\u1ea3y ra, m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf coi Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Mark Zuckerberg,\u00a0 v.v. nh\u01b0 nh\u1eefng nh\u00e0 ph\u00e1t ki\u1ebfn, ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1eb7t ra chi\u1ec1u h\u01b0\u1edbng c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7. C\u00e1c c\u00f4ng nh\u00e2n c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 hi\u1ec7n th\u1eddi, nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n ph\u1ea7n m\u1ec1m, ng\u01b0\u1eddi ki\u1ec3m th\u1eed l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn s\u1edbm. Cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng khi c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp v\u1eefng ch\u1eafc, nhi\u1ec1u vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m h\u01a1n s\u1ebd m\u1edf ra, nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi h\u01a1n s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ed5i ngh\u1ec1 c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd v\u00e0o kh\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 (Ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn mu\u1ed9n, ng\u01b0\u1eddi theo sau.)<\/p>\n

T\u1eeb c\u00e1ch nh\u00ecn kinh t\u1ebf, vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m ch\u1ebf t\u1ea1o l\u00e0 n\u1eb7ng v\u1ec1 lao \u0111\u1ed9ng cho n\u00ean \u0111i\u1ec1u c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m n\u00e0y ph\u1ea3i \u0111i sang n\u01a1i chi ph\u00ed lao \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u00e0 th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t hay b\u1ecb thay th\u1ebf b\u1eb1ng qui tr\u00ecnh t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng ho\u00e1 b\u1eb1ng robot. \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n v\u00ec \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi s\u1ebd \u00edt ch\u00fa \u00fd t\u1edbi s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m ch\u1ebf t\u1ea1o. C\u00f3 s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n l\u00e0m cho m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi v\u1edbi thu nh\u1eadp \u00edt h\u01a1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea3m \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c vi\u1ec7c mua ch\u00fang. Khi nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ed3 v\u1eadt, nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi mua \u0111\u1ed3 v\u1eadt th\u00ec s\u1ebd l\u00e0m cho kinh t\u1ebf ph\u00e1t \u0111\u1ea1t nh\u01b0 lu\u1eadt cung v\u00e0 c\u1ea7u chi ph\u1ed1i.<\/p>\n

T\u1eeb c\u00e1ch nh\u00ecn kinh t\u1ebf, vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 l\u00e0 n\u1eb7ng v\u1ec1 tri th\u1ee9c cho n\u00ean \u0111i\u1ec1u c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m n\u00e0y s\u1ebd \u0111i v\u1ec1 n\u01a1i c\u00f3 c\u00f4ng nh\u00e2n c\u00f3 k\u0129 n\u0103ng v\u00e0 t\u1edbi c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00f3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng gi\u00e1o d\u1ee5c t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t. V\u1edbi to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u ho\u00e1, \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0o c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n khu v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y v\u00ec vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m s\u1ebd t\u00ecm t\u1edbi c\u00f4ng nh\u00e2n c\u00f3 k\u0129 n\u0103ng, b\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 ch\u1ed7 h\u1ecd \u1edf \u0111\u00e2u. Trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9, m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi di c\u01b0 t\u1edbi ch\u1ed7 c\u00f3 vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m nh\u01b0ng ng\u00e0y nay v\u1edbi ti\u1ebfn b\u1ed9 c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 nh\u01b0 internet, vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i \u0111i t\u1edbi n\u01a1i c\u00f4ng nh\u00e2n c\u00f3 k\u0129 n\u0103ng \u1edf v\u00e0 t\u1edbi nh\u1eefng n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00f3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng gi\u00e1o d\u1ee5c ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn nh\u1ea5t.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

—-English version—-<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The transition time<\/p>\n

Today many countries are experiencing significant economic changes. According to many economists, the current change is actually the transition from one phase to another. To developed countries, it is the transition from industrial into knowledge economy. To developing countries, it is the transition from agricultural to industrial economy. Before the world can move into a period of stabilization, there will be more changes, more economic impacts, more political unstable, more unemployment in some areas, and more jobs growth in another areas.<\/p>\n

If we look back to U.S. history, the great depression in 1929 was really a transition from agricultural to industrial. During this time, small family farms are changing and become large industrial farming. Larger farms are better to take advantage of machinery equipments rather than manual labor. The shift in the nature of farming resulted in cheaper, more reliable food supply, higher profits for farm owners but it also meant fewer jobs in agriculture. While this occurred, the growing manufacturing industry demanded more labor workers. Many farmers abandoned farming works, moved to cities to work in factories. During the transition agricultural to industrial, there was resistance as some people wanted to stay in farming works and refused to change. The severe depression of 1929 exposed the vulnerability of small family farms because they could not compete with larger, more efficient industrial farms. Most small farms went bankrupt and millions of people lost jobs in the 1930s and the U.S experienced the most devastating economy recession in its history. When land owners and farmers lost jobs, people who moved to industrial jobs did better, some do so well such as Carnegie (Steel millionaire), Rockefeller (Oil millionaire), Morgan (Bank millionaire) etc.<\/p>\n

Some economists believe the current economic situation is similar to what happened in 1929. It means manufacturing jobs are becoming difficult to find because they are being outsourced to lower cost countries. The prospect of fewer jobs makes a lot of people panic. Manufacturing is the backbone of developed countries\u2019 economy because it has provided well-paid, stable jobs and keep the economies of the U.S, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and S. Korea etc. booming. People have asked: \u201cCan the knowledge industry provide enough jobs to replace manufacturing jobs?\u201d. This is where politicians step in to take advantage of the worry and declare that a lack of manufacturing would leave developed countries vulnerable and weaker. Many advocate that an economy based on technology, health, and services does not seem as promising as manufacturing. However, if you look back into history, the same thing also happened in 1930s where politicians told people that with the vast amount of agriculture lands, everybody could have jobs in farming but there were fewer jobs in manufacturing. The fact was some people believed in that, stayed on their farms then lost their jobs. The same thing is happening today as there are people who believe that when economy improves, there will be manufacturing jobs available so they waited. Few people look at the fact that today there is a shortage of technology workers all over the world. When manufacturing industry is declining, the knowledge industry is growing. For example, the largest industry company such as General Motor lost billion dollars each year at the same time when Apple computer is making billion dollars each quarter and become the largest technology company on earth. When people who work in factories are losing jobs, people who work in technology jobs are doing well. Some succeed extremely well such as Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, Marc Zuckerberg, Sergey Brin, and Larry Page etc. (All of them are in Information Technology).<\/p>\n

Economists have identified several types of people during the transition. The innovators are people who are visionaries, they set the direction and benefit the most. After the direction is set, there are some people who immediately follow it, they are the early adopters who also benefit from the transition as the supply is much less than demand. Eventually, when the direction is well understood and the technology business established firmly, a large numbers of people try to meet the demand, they are the late adopters or followers. Of course, as long as demand exceeds supply, jobs will be plentiful until it reach a balance. However, there is a small group who do not accept the change, these people are called the resistants or procrastinators. They are people who will suffer the most and may not survive at all. As the transition is taking place, some economists consider Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Mark Zuckerberg,\u00a0 etc. as the innovators who set the technology direction. Current technology workers, software developers, testers are the early adopters. Eventually as the technology industry is well establish, more jobs will open, more people will change their careers into technology area (Late adopters, Followers).<\/p>\n

From the economic view, manufacturing jobs are labor intensive so it makes sense that these jobs should go where labor costs are lowest or being replaced by automated process with robots. It is better because it means people would pay less for manufactured products. Having lower priced products made people with lesser income can afford to buy them. When more people consuming things, more people buy things then it will make the economy thriving as the law of supply and demand dictates.<\/p>\n

From the economic view, technology jobs are knowledge intensive so it make sense that these jobs should go where there are skilled workers and to countries that have the best education system. With globalization, it means no country could monopolize this area as jobs will find skilled workers, regardless of where they are. In the past, people migrated to where the jobs were but today with the advance of technology such as the internet, jobs will have to go where skilled workers located and to countries with the most advanced education system.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ng\u00e0y nay nhi\u1ec1u n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111ang kinh nghi\u1ec7m nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i kinh t\u1ebf l\u1edbn. Theo nhi\u1ec1u nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf, thay \u0111\u1ed5i hi\u1ec7n th\u1eddi th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf l\u00e0 … <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2102","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-xu-huong-toan-cau"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2102","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2102"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2102\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2103,"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2102\/revisions\/2103"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2102"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2102"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2102"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}