{"id":1751,"date":"2013-07-03T16:56:30","date_gmt":"2013-07-03T09:56:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/science-technology.vn\/?p=1751"},"modified":"2013-07-03T16:56:30","modified_gmt":"2013-07-03T09:56:30","slug":"uoc-luong-lich-bieu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/?p=1751","title":{"rendered":"\u01af\u1edbc l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u1ecbch bi\u1ec3u"},"content":{"rendered":"

M\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n ph\u1ea7n m\u1ec1m vi\u1ebft cho t\u00f4i: \u201cNg\u01b0\u1eddi qu\u1ea3n l\u00ed c\u1ee7a t\u00f4i cho t\u1ed5 ch\u00fang t\u00f4i m\u1ed9t l\u1ecbch bi\u1ec3u kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 n\u00e0o \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c. Ch\u00fang t\u00f4i bi\u1ebft \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 \u01b0\u1edbc l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u1ed3i nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng bi\u1ebft l\u00e0m sao m\u00e0 n\u00f3i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00ec ch\u00fang t\u00f4i s\u1ee3 n\u00f3i ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi qu\u1ea3n l\u00ed. Kh\u00f4ng ai mu\u1ed1n b\u1ecb \u0111u\u1ed5i vi\u1ec7c. Th\u1ea7y c\u00f3 l\u1eddi khuy\u00ean n\u00e0o cho ch\u00fang t\u00f4i kh\u00f4ng?”<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u0110\u00e1p: V\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 \u1edf \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 li\u1ec7u n\u00f3i d\u1ed1i hay n\u00f3i th\u1eadt. Khi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c cho m\u1ed9t h\u1ea1n ch\u00f3t t\u1ed3i, ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn ng\u01b0\u1eddi ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n s\u1ebd n\u00f3i \u201cT\u00f4i s\u1ebd c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng h\u1ebft s\u1ee9c” cho d\u00f9 h\u1ecd bi\u1ebft r\u1eb1ng kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 n\u00e0o \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ecbch bi\u1ec3u t\u1ed3i. N\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n n\u00f3i b\u1ea1n s\u1ebd c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng, t\u1ea5t nhi\u00ean b\u1ea1n th\u1eadm ch\u00ed v\u1eabn kh\u00f4ng tin r\u1eb1ng b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng chuy\u1ec3n giao n\u00f3 \u0111\u00fang h\u1ea1n? Kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 g\u00ec sai v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng h\u1ea1n ch\u00f3t nh\u01b0ng l\u1eddi n\u00f3i c\u0169ng g\u1ee3i \u00fd r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1i g\u00ec \u0111\u00f3 kh\u00e1c s\u1ebd x\u1ea3y ra.<\/p>\n

L\u00ed do nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n n\u00f3i \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 v\u00ec h\u1ecd kh\u00f4ng mu\u1ed1n tranh c\u00e3i v\u1edbi ng\u01b0\u1eddi qu\u1ea3n l\u00ed. H\u1ecd kh\u00f4ng mu\u1ed1n b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed3ng v\u1edbi ng\u01b0\u1eddi qu\u1ea3n l\u00ed cho n\u00ean h\u1ecd n\u00f3i \u201cT\u00f4i s\u1ebd c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng.\u201d Ng\u01b0\u1eddi qu\u1ea3n l\u00ed gi\u1ecfi ph\u1ea3i hi\u1ec3u c\u1ea3m gi\u00e1c n\u00e0y v\u00e0 n\u00ean truy t\u00ecm v\u00e0o trong n\u00f3. Ng\u01b0\u1eddi qu\u1ea3n l\u00ed k\u00e9m s\u1ebd ngh\u0129: \u201cT\u00f4i cho h\u1ecd m\u1ed9t nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ee5 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u01b0ng h\u1ecd s\u1ebd l\u00e0m n\u00f3 b\u1eb1ng m\u1ecdi c\u00e1ch. N\u1ebfu h\u1ecd kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ecbch bi\u1ec3u c\u1ee7a t\u00f4i, t\u00f4i s\u1ebd qu\u1edf tr\u00e1ch h\u1ecd v\u00ec kh\u00f4ng l\u00e0m \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c vi\u1ec7c t\u1ed1t.\u201d \u0110i\u1ec1u g\u00ec s\u1ebd x\u1ea3y ra n\u1ebfu t\u1ed5 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ecbch bi\u1ec3u? \u0110i\u1ec1u g\u00ec s\u1ebd x\u1ea3y ra n\u1ebfu ng\u01b0\u1eddi qu\u1ea3n l\u00ed tr\u00e1ch m\u1eafng b\u1ea1n? \u0110i\u1ec1u g\u00ec s\u1ebd x\u1ea3y ra n\u1ebfu ng\u01b0\u1eddi qu\u1ea3n l\u00ed d\u1ef1 \u00e1n n\u00f3i v\u1edbi ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u1ee7 c\u00f4ng ti r\u1eb1ng b\u1ea1n ch\u1ecbu tr\u00e1ch nhi\u1ec7m v\u00ec kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng l\u1ecbch bi\u1ec3u v\u00e0 l\u00e0m cho kh\u00e1ch h\u00e0ng gi\u1eadn?<\/p>\n

\u01af\u1edbc l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ph\u1ea7n m\u1ec1m l\u00e0 r\u1ea5t kh\u00f3. N\u00f3 \u0111\u1ea7y r\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0 l\u00e0 quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n. Ng\u01b0\u1eddi qu\u1ea3n l\u00ed c\u1ea7n gi\u00fap \u0111\u1ee1 v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u00f3 v\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u duy nh\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u00fap cho h\u1ecd l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 th\u1ef1c. Cho n\u00ean khi ng\u01b0\u1eddi qu\u1ea3n l\u00ed cho b\u1ea1n m\u1ed9t h\u1ea1n ch\u00f3t kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c, b\u1ea1n ph\u1ea3i n\u00f3i v\u1edbi ng\u01b0\u1eddi qu\u1ea3n l\u00ed \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ef1 th\u1eadt. N\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n kh\u00f4ng tin b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ecbch bi\u1ec3u \u0111\u00f3, b\u1ea1n ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ec3 cho h\u1ecd bi\u1ebft. T\u00f4i th\u01b0\u1eddng khuy\u00ean sinh vi\u00ean n\u00f3i: \u201c\u0110\u1ec3 t\u00f4i xem k\u0129 \u01b0\u1edbc l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u1ecbch bi\u1ec3u n\u00e0y r\u1ed3i t\u00f4i s\u1ebd cho \u00f4ng bi\u1ebft t\u00f4i \u0111i t\u1edbi k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn g\u00ec.\u201d \u00cdt nh\u1ea5t b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1eddi gian n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 l\u00e0m \u01b0\u1edbc l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ri\u00eang c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n. Kh\u00f4ng ai s\u1ebd gi\u1eadn b\u1ea1n n\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n mu\u1ed1n ki\u1ec3m th\u00eam d\u1eef li\u1ec7u. T\u1ea5t nhi\u00ean b\u1ea1n ph\u1ea3i bi\u1ebft c\u00e1ch \u01b0\u1edbc l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 \u0111i t\u1edbi m\u1ed9t \u01b0\u1edbc l\u01b0\u1ee3ng logic m\u00e0 b\u1ea1n bi\u1ebft r\u1eb1ng b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c.<\/p>\n

T\u1ea5t nhi\u00ean, n\u00f3i s\u1ef1 th\u1ef1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng tho\u1ea3i m\u00e1i nh\u01b0ng n\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ec9 ra cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi qu\u1ea3n l\u00ed c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n v\u1ec1 \u01b0\u1edbc l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a b\u1ea1n th\u00ec \u0111i\u1ec1u logic v\u1edbi ng\u01b0\u1eddi qu\u1ea3n l\u00ed l\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 ra cho b\u1ea1n t\u1ea1i sao \u00f4ng \u1ea5y \u0111i t\u1edbi \u01b0\u1edbc l\u01b0\u1ee3ng kh\u00e1c. Kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o r\u1eb1ng b\u1ea1n \u0111\u00fang hay \u00f4ng \u1ea5y \u0111\u00fang nh\u01b0ng \u00edt nh\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 hai c\u00f3 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ec3 th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn v\u1ec1 \u01b0\u1edbc l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u1ecbch bi\u1ec3u. D\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1i v\u00e0o t\u1eeb sinh vi\u00ean c\u1ee7a t\u00f4i, khi ch\u1ec9 ra c\u00e1c \u01b0\u1edbc l\u01b0\u1ee3ng kh\u00e1c nhau, ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn ng\u01b0\u1eddi qu\u1ea3n l\u00ed s\u1ebd thay \u0111\u1ed5i \u01b0\u1edbc l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u1ecbch bi\u1ec3u b\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c t\u1ed5 h\u1ee3p hai \u01b0\u1edbc l\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u00e0nh c\u00e1i g\u00ec \u0111\u00f3 m\u00e0 c\u1ea3 ng\u01b0\u1eddi ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi qu\u1ea3n l\u00ed s\u1ebd c\u1ea3m th\u1ea5y tho\u1ea3i m\u00e1i. \u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 th\u01b0\u01a1ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng. B\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m nh\u01b0 v\u1eady b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ecdc k\u0129 n\u0103ng m\u1ec1m v\u1ec1 th\u01b0\u01a1ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u1ecbch bi\u1ec3u.<\/p>\n

Ng\u01b0\u1eddi qu\u1ea3n l\u00ed d\u1ef1 \u00e1n c\u00f3 kinh nghi\u1ec7m ch\u01b0a bao gi\u1edd \u01b0\u1edbc l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u1ecbch bi\u1ec3u trong ch\u1ed7 c\u00f4 l\u1eadp, ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u00f3 th\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ecfi c\u00e1i v\u00e0o t\u1eeb nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n. Khi ng\u01b0\u1eddi qu\u1ea3n l\u00ed h\u1ecfi v\u1ec1 \u01b0\u1edbc l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, ng\u01b0\u1eddi ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n ph\u1ea3i cung c\u1ea5p d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd v\u00e0 g\u1ee3i \u00fd v\u1ec1 r\u1ee7i ro. Ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n, ng\u01b0\u1eddi ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u01b0\u1edbc l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u1ed9t nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ee5 10 ng\u00e0y, v\u1edbi hai ng\u00e0y ph\u1ee5 th\u00eam n\u1ebfu c\u00e1i g\u00ec \u0111\u00f3 \u0111i sai. Nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ee5 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 m\u1ea5t m\u01b0\u1eddi ng\u00e0y, n\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 m\u1ea5t t\u1edbi 12 ng\u00e0y. B\u1eb1n vi\u1ec7c cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi qu\u1ea3n l\u00ed c\u00e1i g\u00ec \u0111\u00f3 nh\u01b0 c\u00e1ch \u0111o h\u1ee3p l\u00ed v\u1ec1 t\u00ednh b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh s\u1ebd gi\u00fap cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi qu\u1ea3n l\u00ed \u0111i t\u1edbi l\u1ecbch bi\u1ec3u t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t. Xin nh\u1edb cho r\u1eb1ng c\u00f4ng vi\u1ec7c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n ph\u1ea7n m\u1ec1m l\u00e0 c\u00f4ng vi\u1ec7c t\u1ed5 v\u00e0 t\u1ed5 c\u0169ng bao g\u1ed3m ng\u01b0\u1eddi qu\u1ea3n l\u00ed d\u1ef1 \u00e1n.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

—-English version—-<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Schedule Estimation<\/p>\n

A software developer wrote to me: \u201cMy manager gives our team a schedule that is impossible to meet. We know that is a bad estimate but do not know how to say because we are afraid speaking against the demands of our manager. Nobody wants to get fired. Do you have any advice for us?”<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Answer: The question here is whether to lie or to tell the truth. When given a bad dateline, most developer would say \u201cI will try my best\u201d even they know that it is impossible to meet a bad schedule. If you say you will try, of course you will even you do not believe that you will be able to deliver it on time? There is nothing wrong with trying to meet the dateline but the words also suggest that something different will happen.<\/p>\n

The reason many developers say it because they do not want to argue with the manager. They do not want to disagree with the manager so they say \u201cI will try\u201d. A good manager must understand this feeling and should inquire into it. A bad manager would think: \u201cI give them an impossible task but they will do it anyway. If they do not meet my schedule, I will blame them for not doing a good job.\u201d What would happen if the team misses the schedule? What would happen if the manager blames it on you? What would happen if the project manager tells the company owner that you are responsible for not meeting the schedule and make the customers angry?<\/p>\n

Software estimation is very difficult. It is full of risks and tough decisions. Managers need help with those decisions and the only thing that can help them is the truth. So when a manager gives you an impossible deadline, you have to tell that manager the truth. If you do not believe you can meet that schedule, you have to let them know. I often advise students to say: \u201cLet me look more into this schedule estimate than I will let you know what I come up with.\u201d At least you have some time to do your own estimates. No one would be angry at you if you want to check out more data. Of course you must know how to estimate and come up with a logical estimate that you know that you could meet.<\/p>\n

Of course, telling the truth might be uncomfortable but if you can show your manager of your estimate than it is logical for the manager to show you why he come up with different estimate. There is no guarantee that you are correct or he is correct but at least both of you have a chance to discuss about the schedule estimation. Based on inputs from my students, when showing different estimates, most managers would change the schedule estimates by combining the two estimates into something that both developers and managers would feel comfortable. That is negotiation. By doing so you have a chance to learn a soft-skill on schedule negotiation.<\/p>\n

An experienced project manager never estimates schedule in isolation, he often asks for inputs from developers. When manager asks for estimates, developers should provide their best guess and a suggestion for risk. For example, a developer might estimate a task at 10 days, with two days extra if something goes wrong. The task might take 10 days, it might take 12. By giving manager something such as a reasonable measure of the uncertainty would help the manager to come up with a better schedule. Please remember that software project work is teamwork and the team also includes the project manager.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

M\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n ph\u1ea7n m\u1ec1m vi\u1ebft cho t\u00f4i: \u201cNg\u01b0\u1eddi qu\u1ea3n l\u00ed c\u1ee7a t\u00f4i cho t\u1ed5 ch\u00fang t\u00f4i m\u1ed9t l\u1ecbch bi\u1ec3u kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 n\u00e0o \u0111\u00e1p … <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1751","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-quan-li-du-an"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1751","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1751"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1751\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1752,"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1751\/revisions\/1752"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1751"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1751"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1751"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}