{"id":1683,"date":"2013-07-03T15:53:08","date_gmt":"2013-07-03T08:53:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/science-technology.vn\/?p=1683"},"modified":"2013-07-03T15:53:08","modified_gmt":"2013-07-03T08:53:08","slug":"du-bao-tuong-lai","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/?p=1683","title":{"rendered":"D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai"},"content":{"rendered":"

Trong hai m\u01b0\u01a1i n\u0103m qua, M\u0129 \u0111\u00e3 kho\u00e1n ngo\u00e0i h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft vi\u1ec7c ch\u1ebf t\u1ea1o cho Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00ec c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 chi ph\u00ed th\u1ea5p v\u00e0 \u00edt \u00f4 nhi\u1ec5m. M\u1ecdi s\u1ef1 s\u1ebd thay \u0111\u1ed5i khi c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 m\u1edbi nh\u01b0 tr\u00ed tu\u1ec7 nh\u00e2n t\u1ea1o v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi m\u00e1y Robotic \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng trong to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p ch\u1ebf t\u1ea1o v\u00e0 l\u00e0m cho n\u00f3 \u0111\u1ee1 t\u1ed1n k\u00e9m, ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng cao h\u01a1n, v\u00e0 th\u1eddi gian nhanh h\u01a1n ra th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. B\u00e2y gi\u1edd \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0m n\u1ea3y m\u1ed1i quan ng\u1ea1i kh\u1ed5ng l\u1ed3 \u1edf Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc chi ph\u00ed th\u1ea5p kh\u00e1c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tr\u00ed tu\u1ec7 nh\u00e2n t\u1ea1o (AI) l\u00e0 ph\u1ea7n m\u1ec1m l\u00e0m cho m\u00e1y t\u00ednh l\u00e0m nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec1u t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 con ng\u01b0\u1eddi. \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 m\u00e1y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u1ecdc t\u1eeb sai l\u1ea7m v\u00e0 ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3. AI l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng m\u1edbi, n\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 qu\u00e3ng ch\u1eebng \u00edt nh\u1ea5t n\u0103m m\u01b0\u01a1i n\u0103m nh\u01b0ng ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn trong ph\u00f2ng th\u00ed nghi\u1ec7m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u. B\u00e2y gi\u1edd n\u00f3 \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng trong c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 n\u00f3 c\u00f3 t\u00e1c d\u1ee5ng t\u1ed1t. N\u0103m 1997, m\u1ed9t m\u00e1y t\u00ednh AI c\u00f3 t\u00ean \u201cDeep Blue\u201d \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u00e1nh b\u1ea1i k\u00ec th\u1ee7 c\u1edd vua th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi Garry Kasparov b\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c ngh\u0129 tr\u01b0\u1edbc t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111i m\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u01a1i c\u1edd gi\u1ecfi nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ngh\u0129 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c. C\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ea3i ti\u1ebfn v\u00e0 n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i, m\u1ed9t m\u00e1y t\u00ednh AI kh\u00e1c c\u00f3 t\u00ean \u201cWatson\u201d \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u00e1nh b\u1ea1i hai nh\u00e0 v\u00f4 \u0111\u1ecbch tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i Jeopardy tr\u00ean ti vi. N\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi \u0111\u00fang m\u1ecdi c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ecfi. M\u1ed9t m\u00e1y t\u00ednh AI kh\u00e1c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1eafp \u0111\u1eb7t trong xe \u00f4 t\u00f4 t\u1ef1 l\u00e1i \u0111\u00e3 \u0111i t\u1eeb Los Angeles t\u1edbi Las Vegas qua m\u1ecdi t\u1eafc ngh\u1ebdn giao th\u00f4ng m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng g\u00e2y ra tai n\u1ea1n n\u00e0o. T\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 nh\u1eefng c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 n\u00e0y b\u00e2y gi\u1edd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng trong c\u01a1 x\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ec3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i qui tr\u00ecnh thi\u1ebft k\u1ebf v\u00e0 l\u00e0m cho n\u00f3 t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n, nhanh h\u01a1n v\u00e0 r\u1ebb h\u01a1n. M\u1ed9t m\u00e1y t\u00ednh AI kh\u00e1c \u0111\u00e3 thi\u1ebft k\u1ebf v\u00e0 v\u1ebd to\u00e0 nh\u00e0 cao 50 t\u1ea7ng th\u1eadt chi ti\u1ebft v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ph\u00f2ng, thang m\u00e1y trong n\u0103m ng\u00e0y trong khi \u0111\u1ec3 l\u00e0m c\u00f9ng \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 c\u1ea7n m\u1ed9t t\u1ed5 hai m\u01b0\u01a1i ki\u1ebfn tr\u00fac s\u01b0 l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c trong b\u1ed1n tu\u1ea7n. M\u1ed9t m\u00e1y t\u00ednh AI kh\u00e1c \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ec3 qu\u1ea3n l\u00ed h\u1eadu c\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ti ch\u1ebf t\u1ea1o, t\u1eeb nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01a1n h\u00e0nh c\u1ee7a kh\u00e1ch h\u00e0ng; thi\u1ebft k\u1ebf s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m; qu\u1ea3n l\u00ed x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m; v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m t\u1edbi kh\u00e1ch h\u00e0ng; t\u00ednh chi ph\u00ed t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh; v\u00e0 thu ti\u1ec1n thanh to\u00e1n m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng.<\/p>\n

Robots \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u00f9ng t\u1eeb cu\u1ed1i nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 1970 trong m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p n\u1eb7ng. Ch\u00fang r\u1ea5t \u0111\u1eaft v\u00e0 kh\u00f3 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t v\u00ec ch\u00fang th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean h\u1ecfng. C\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 \u0111\u00e3 c\u1ea3i ti\u1ebfn v\u1eefng ch\u1eafc trong v\u00e0i n\u0103m qua. Ng\u00e0y nay, c\u00f3 tr\u00ean v\u00e0i ngh\u00ecn robot s\u1eb5n c\u00f3. M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u khi\u1ec3n b\u1edfi h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng m\u00e1y t\u00ednh ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p; s\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u khi\u1ec3n th\u00f4ng qua app \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n d\u00f9ng \u0111i\u1ec7n tho\u1ea1i th\u00f4ng minh. Ng\u00e0y nay robot \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thi\u1ebft k\u1ebf \u0111\u1ec3 l\u00e0m nhi\u1ec1u th\u1ee9, t\u1eeb di chuy\u1ec3n v\u1eadt n\u1eb7ng t\u1edbi th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n gi\u1ea3i ph\u1eabu. V\u1ec1 c\u0103n b\u1ea3n robot l\u00e0 r\u1ebb h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi lao \u0111\u1ed9ng con ng\u01b0\u1eddi. Ch\u00fang kh\u00f4ng ng\u1ee7, kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u00f2i ngh\u1ec9 ph\u00e9p, kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u00f2i t\u0103ng l\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 ch\u00fang l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c 24 gi\u1edd m\u1ed9t ng\u00e0y v\u00e0 7 ng\u00e0y m\u1ed9t tu\u1ea7n kh\u00f4ng d\u1eebng. Theo m\u1ed9t kh\u1ea3o c\u1ee9u m\u1edbi, \u00a0robot s\u1ebd s\u1edbm c\u1ea1nh tranh tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp v\u1edbi lao \u0111\u1ed9ng chi ph\u00ed th\u1ea5p t\u1eeb c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc kh\u00e1c. Hi\u1ec7n th\u1eddi qu\u00e3ng m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda c\u01a1 x\u01b0\u1edfng \u1edf M\u0129 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c trang b\u1ecb b\u1eb1ng robot. Khi chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i n\u00e0y ho\u00e0n th\u00e0nh, h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft vi\u1ec7c ch\u1ebf t\u1ea1o s\u1ebd chuy\u1ec3n l\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 M\u0129 v\u00ec x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng \u0111\u1ecba ph\u01b0\u01a1ng r\u1ebb h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u.<\/p>\n

Ngay c\u1ea3 nh\u00e0 ch\u1ebf t\u1ea1o c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 cao l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c Foxconn (n\u01a1i x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng c\u00e1c s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m c\u1ee7a Apple – iPhone, iPads v.v.) \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch mua m\u1ed9t tri\u1ec7u robot t\u1eeb M\u0129 trong v\u00f2ng ba n\u0103m \u0111\u1ec3 l\u00e0m c\u00f4ng vi\u1ec7c m\u00e0 c\u00f4ng nh\u00e2n c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang l\u00e0m. Nh\u1eefng robot n\u00e0y s\u1ebd th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ee5 l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i, m\u00e1y m\u00f3c \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o ra bo m\u1ea1ch c\u00f3 trong nhi\u1ec1u v\u1eadt ph\u1ea9m ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng ph\u1ed5\u00a0 bi\u1ebfn. Foxconn t\u1eeb ch\u1ed1i tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi v\u1ec1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng nh\u00e2n hi\u1ec7n th\u1eddi c\u1ee7a n\u00f3.<\/p>\n

\u0110i\u1ec1u g\u00ec x\u1ea3y ra ti\u1ebfp s\u1ebd l\u00e0m thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng kinh t\u1ebf khi c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 s\u1ebd x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh ai s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ee3i nh\u1ea5t? \u0110i\u1ec1u g\u00ec s\u1ebd x\u1ea3y ra n\u1ebfu n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu v\u00e0 chi ph\u00ed lao \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ea5p kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n kh\u1ea3 thi n\u1eefa? \u0110i\u1ec1u g\u00ec s\u1ebd x\u1ea3y ra cho c\u00f4ng nh\u00e2n lao \u0111\u1ed9ng b\u1ecb th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p? M\u1ed9t n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft cho h\u00e0ng tr\u0103m tri\u1ec7u c\u00f4ng nh\u00e2n th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0o c\u00f9ng l\u00fac kh\u00f4ng? C\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi m\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 ch\u00ednh kh\u00e1ch s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft. Tuy nhi\u00ean, m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec1u l\u00e0 ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn: T\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 nh\u1eefng c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 n\u00e0y c\u1ea7n ng\u01b0\u1eddi k\u0129 thu\u1eadt qu\u1ea3n l\u00ed ch\u00fang, thi\u1ebft k\u1ebf ch\u00fang, x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng ch\u00fang. Vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai: k\u0129 s\u01b0, ng\u01b0\u1eddi ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n ph\u1ea7n m\u1ec1m, ng\u01b0\u1eddi qu\u1ea3n l\u00ed h\u1ec7 th\u00f4ng tin. Hi\u1ec7n th\u1eddi c\u00f3 thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t l\u1edbn nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u00e0y tr\u00ean kh\u1eafp th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

—-English version—-<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Predicting the future<\/p>\n

For the past twenty years, The U.S has outsourced most manufacturing jobs to China for lower costs and less pollution issues. Things will change as new technologies such as Artificial intelligence and Robotics are being applied throughout the manufacturing industry and make it less expensive, higher quality, and faster time to the market. Now it raises a huge concern in China and other lower cost countries.<\/p>\n

Artificial intelligence (AI) is software that makes computers do things similar to humans. It means that a machine can learn from mistakes and make some decisions. AI is not new, it has been around for at least fifty years but mostly in research labs. Now it is being applied into the industry and it works well. In 1997, an AI computer named \u201cDeep Blue\u201d defeated the World Chess master Garry Kasparov by thinking ahead all the chess moves that the best Chess player in the world can think of. The technology has been improved and last year, another AI computer named \u201cWatson\u201d defeated two champions of the Jeopardy games on TV. It correctly answered all questions asked. Another AI computer installed in a self-driving car has traveled from Los Angeles to Las Vegas throughout all the traffic jam without causing any accident. All of these technologies are now being applied in factory to change the design process and make it better, faster and cheaper. Another AI computer designed and draw a 50 stories-high building in details with rooms, elevators in five days when it took a team of twenty architects to do the same thing in four weeks. Another AI computer has been used to manage the logistics of a manufacturing company, from take order of customers; design the products; manage the building of the products; ship the product to customers; calculate finance cost; and collect payment automatically.<\/p>\n

Robots have been used since the late 1970s in some heavy industry. They are very expensive and difficult to control since they broke down often. The technology has been improving steadily in the past several years. Today, there are over several thousand robots available. Some are controlled by complex computer systems; others can be controlled via simple apps using smart-phones. Today robots are being designed to do many things, from moving heavy things to perform surgery. Basically robots are much cheaper than human labor. They do not sleep, asking for vacation, demand raise in salary and they work 24 hours a day and 7 days a week without stopping. According to a new study, robots will soon compete directly with low cost labor from other countries. Currently about half of the factories in the U.S are equipped with robots. When this transformation complete, most of manufacturing jobs will move back to the U.S as it is much cheaper to build locally.<\/p>\n

Even China\u2019s largest hi-tech manufacturer Foxconn (Who build Apple\u2019s Products- iPhone, iPads etc.) has announced plans to buy one million robots from the U.S within three years to do the work that its workers presently do. These robots will perform repetitive, mechanical tasks to produce circuit boards that go in many popular consumer gadgets. Foxconn refused to answer the question about the future of its current workers.<\/p>\n

What happen next will change the balance of economic power as technology will determine who is going to benefit most? What will happen if the economy that depends mostly on low labor costs is no longer feasible? What will happen to the unemployed labor workers? Can a country deals with hundred million unemployed workers at the same time? There are many questions that economists and politicians will have to deal with. However, one thing is for sure: All of these technologies need technical people to manage them, to design them, to build them. The best jobs of the future: The engineers, the software developers, the information system managers. Currently there are significant shortage of these people all over the world.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Trong hai m\u01b0\u01a1i n\u0103m qua, M\u0129 \u0111\u00e3 kho\u00e1n ngo\u00e0i h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft vi\u1ec7c ch\u1ebf t\u1ea1o cho Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00ec c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 chi ph\u00ed th\u1ea5p v\u00e0 … <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1683","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-xu-huong-cong-nghe"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1683","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1683"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1683\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1684,"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1683\/revisions\/1684"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1683"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1683"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/science-technology.vn\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1683"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}